The Power of Asking “What If ?” - Scenario Planning in an Uncertain World
As leaders, we must continually adapt to changes we can and can’t foresee. In volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) times, we may consider the future too unpredictable to justify investing in strategic planning, viewing it as a luxury amid the pressing demands of the present — yet we must move ahead strategically.
As strategic planning consultants, we are often asked by clients whether they should postpone strategic planning due to internal or external changes. Today, in the midst of the massive uncertainties we face, our advice remains consistent: now as much as ever, leaders should proceed with strategic planning. A robust strategic plan helps to provide the insight, decision-making tools, and innovative ideas needed to successfully navigate change and thrive despite challenges.
These days, our clients are exploring scenarios such as what basic core services they would keep if they lost significant funding sources. Some are considering whether to find ways to adapt their diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) language to protect the funding they need to serve their communities, or to speak out and take the chance of losing funding for standing by their values. Other clients are considering mergers, redesigning their business models, or preparing for other organizational shifts, while some are looking at how to grow to respond to increased needs for their services.
Scenario planning is a powerful tool for planning during uncertain times. When combined with a focus on mission and theory of change, scenario planning is a disciplined and iterative process of envisioning possible futures and examining what each might look like, so that you can make informed decisions and choose a course of action. In the process, we build flexibility and resilience to navigate changes that may be coming our way and, when possible, proactively help bring about changes we’d like to create.
We typically use four major steps when guiding our clients through scenario planning: we identify external uncertainties, identify internal uncertainties, explore multiple alternative futures, and use a strategy screen to test the consequences and viability of the most likely scenarios. Read more about each of these steps on our website.
