“Why try to predict the future at all if it’s so difficult, so nearly impossible? Because making predictions is one way to give warning when we see ourselves drifting in dangerous directions. Because prediction is a useful way of pointing out safer, wiser courses. Because, most of all, our tomorrow is the child of our today. Through thought and deed, we exert a great deal of influence over this child, even though we can’t control it absolutely. Best to think about it, though. Best to try to shape it into something good. Best to do that for any child.”
― Octavia Butler, Author
Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is a disciplined and iterative process where we facilitate envisioning possible futures and examining what each might look like, so that you can make informed decisions and choose a course of action.
Scenarios are stories about how the future might look for an organization. They can be internally driven, such as by a decision about whom to serve—or externally driven, such as by the length of the pandemic or the outcome of an election. Or the scenario can be driven by a combination of internal and external factors.
Used in combination with a disciplined focus on mission and theory of change, our scenario planning process can help leaders find new clarity in their strategic directions, even in the face of extreme uncertainty.
In scenario planning, we ask “what if?” We do not need to become prophets. Scenarios are not predictions, but rather possibilities to plan for and explore. They help expand our thinking so we can better anticipate and imagine what might happen, thus preparing the team to more skillfully manage various outcomes. We cannot identify every possible future state; nor should we try to do so. The goal is to think through a range of possible outcomes and options for responding. In the process we build flexibility and resilience to navigate changes that may be coming our way, and to proactively bring about changes we’d like to create.
To learn more, read the blog post on scenario planning for uncertain times.